# Dataset: Football stadiums with geographic coordinates

Here is a dataset I have put together with the location and capacity for the stadiums for about 160 European teams. The teams are from England, Scotland, France, Germany and Spain. The data is taken from Wikipedia and should be … Continue reading

# Elo ratings in football: Home field advantage

In my first post about Elo ratings in football I posted the code for a R function where you could adjust the ratings to account for home field advantage. The method is simple: Some extra points are added to the … Continue reading

# How to determine which football team is best? Statistical power and experimental design

Luck plays a significant part in a football match. Because of this we are not absolutely sure that the winning team in a match is the best one. Some researchers has taken a closer look at this by viewing a … Continue reading

# Elo ratings in football

I have previously written about some statistical methods for rating football teams and to predict the result of future matches. One was the last squares method and another was the Poisson regression method. None of these methods make good enough … Continue reading

# Predicting football results with Poisson regression pt. 2

In part 1 I wrote about the basics of the Poisson regression model for predicting football results, and briefly mentioned how our data should look like. In this part I will look at how we can fit the model and … Continue reading

# Predicting football results with Poisson regression pt. 1

I have been meaning to write about my take on using Poisson regression to predict football results for a while, so here we go. Poisson regression is one of the earliest statistical methods used for predicting football results. The goal … Continue reading

# Is goal difference the best way to rank and rate football teams?

In my previous post i compared the least squares rating of football teams to the ordinary three points for a win rating. In this post I will look closer at how these two systems rank teams differently. I briefly touched … Continue reading

# Least squares rating of football teams

The Wikipedia article Statistical association football predictions mentions a method for least squares rating of football teams. The article does not give any source for this, but I found what I think may be the origin of this method. It … Continue reading

# Expected goals from bookmaker odds

I recently read an interesting paper called The Betting Odds Rating System: Using soccer forecasts to forecast soccer by Wunderlich and Memmert. In their paper they develop av variant of the good old Elo rating system. Instead of using the … Continue reading