My predictions for the rest of the Premier League season

A couple of weeks ago Constantinos Chappas asked on twitter for predictions for the results of the remaining season of English Premier League:

I had been thinking about posting some predictions about the Premier League around new years, since this season is really exciting and it would be a great opportunity to see how well my models would cope with everything that is currently going on. I have never posted any predictions before, so this will surely be an interesting experience. And I thought Chappas’ initiative was really interesting, so that surely gave me a nice reason to come trough.

Today Chappas posted the combined results from all 15 participants so I thought I could share some of the details behind my contribution.

I originally wanted to use the Conway-Maxwell model I have written about recently, but I had some problems with the estimation procedure, so I instead used a classic Poisson model. I used data on Premier League and Championship results going back to the 2011-12 season. By including data from the Champoionship I hope to get better predictions, like I have demonstrated before. Since I used data from a long time back I used the Dixon-Coles weighting scheme, which make more recent games have a greater impact on the predictions. The weighting parameter \(\xi\) was set to 0.0019, which gives a bit more weight on more recent games than the 0.0018 I found to be most optimal earlier.

I fitted the model and calculated the probabilities for the remaining games of the season. From these probabilities I simulated the rest of the season ten thousand times. From these simulations we can get the probabilities and expectations for the end of season results.

So how do I predict the league table will look like at the end of the season?

Team Points
Manchester City 75.7
Arsenal 75.2
Tottenham 65.6
Leicester City 64.8
Manchester United 64.3
Liverpool 58.2
West Ham 56.1
Chelsea 54.7
Everton 53.7
Crystal Palace 53.7
Stoke City 52.9
Watford 51.9
Southampton 50.6
West Bromwich Albion 45.8
Norwich City 43.7
Bournemouth 42.9
Swansea City 40.9
Newcastle 34.5
Sunderland 31.5
Aston Villa 23.1

Although I predict 0.2 points more for Manchester City than Arsenal, the probabilities for both of them to win is 47.0%. I also give Tottenham a 2.3% chance, Leicester 2.1% and Manchester United a 1.5%. At last, Liverpool have a 0.1% chance. The other teams have a chance less than 0.04%.

I will come back with an update with my entire table with probabilities for all positions for all teams.