{"id":1278,"date":"2016-01-10T20:42:33","date_gmt":"2016-01-10T20:42:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/opisthokonta.net\/?p=1278"},"modified":"2016-05-29T15:28:54","modified_gmt":"2016-05-29T15:28:54","slug":"my-predictions-for-the-rest-of-the-premier-league-season","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/opisthokonta.net\/?p=1278","title":{"rendered":"My predictions for the rest of the Premier League season"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>A couple of weeks ago Constantinos Chappas asked on twitter for predictions for the results of the remaining season of English Premier League:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" lang=\"no\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Football modellers out there: would you be interested in participating in a &quot;poll of models&quot; with end-of-season probabilities for EPL? (1\/5)<\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Constantinos Chappas (@cchappas) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/cchappas\/status\/682108404790239232\">30. desember 2015<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>I had been thinking about posting some predictions about the Premier League around new years, since this season is really exciting and it would be a great opportunity to see how well my models would cope with everything that is currently going on. I have never posted any predictions before, so this will surely be an interesting experience. And I thought Chappas&#8217; initiative was really interesting, so that surely gave me a nice reason to come trough.  <\/p>\n<p>Today Chappas <a href=\"http:\/\/statsbomb.com\/2016\/01\/a-compilation-of-epl-model-predictions-after-round-2038\/\">posted the combined results from all 15 participants<\/a> so I thought I could share some of the details behind my contribution. <\/p>\n<p>I originally wanted to use the Conway-Maxwell model I have written about recently, but I had some problems with the estimation procedure, so I instead used a <a href=\"https:\/\/opisthokonta.net\/?p=296\">classic Poisson model<\/a>. I used data on Premier League and Championship results going back to the 2011-12 season. By including data from the Champoionship I hope to get better predictions, like <a href=\"https:\/\/opisthokonta.net\/?p=1108\">I have demonstrated before<\/a>. Since I used data from a long time back I used the <a href=\"https:\/\/opisthokonta.net\/?p=1013\">Dixon-Coles weighting scheme<\/a>, which make more recent games have a greater impact on the predictions. The weighting parameter  \\(\\xi\\) was set to  0.0019, which gives a bit more weight on more recent games than the  0.0018 I found to be most optimal earlier.<\/p>\n<p>I fitted the model and calculated the probabilities for the remaining games of the season. From these probabilities I simulated the rest of the season ten thousand times. From these simulations we can get the probabilities and expectations for the end of season results. <\/p>\n<p>So how do I predict the league table will look like at the end of the season?<\/p>\n<table>\n<tr>\n<th> Team  <\/th>\n<th> Points <\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td> Manchester City <\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"> 75.7 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td> Arsenal <\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"> 75.2 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td> Tottenham <\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"> 65.6 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td> Leicester City <\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"> 64.8 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td> Manchester United <\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"> 64.3 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td> Liverpool <\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"> 58.2 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td> West Ham <\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"> 56.1 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td> Chelsea <\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"> 54.7 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td> Everton <\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"> 53.7 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td> Crystal Palace <\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"> 53.7 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td> Stoke City <\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"> 52.9 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td> Watford <\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"> 51.9 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td> Southampton <\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"> 50.6 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td> West Bromwich Albion <\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"> 45.8 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td> Norwich City <\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"> 43.7 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td> Bournemouth <\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"> 42.9 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td> Swansea City <\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"> 40.9 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td> Newcastle <\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"> 34.5 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td> Sunderland <\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"> 31.5 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td> Aston Villa <\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"> 23.1 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p>Although I predict 0.2 points more for Manchester City than Arsenal, the probabilities for both of them to win is 47.0%. I also give Tottenham a 2.3% chance, Leicester 2.1% and Manchester United a 1.5%. At last, Liverpool have a 0.1% chance. The other teams have a chance less than 0.04%. <\/p>\n<p>I will come back with an update with my entire table with probabilities for all positions for all teams. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A couple of weeks ago Constantinos Chappas asked on twitter for predictions for the results of the remaining season of English Premier League: Football modellers out there: would you be interested in participating in a &quot;poll of models&quot; with end-of-season &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/opisthokonta.net\/?p=1278\">Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1278","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-soccer"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/opisthokonta.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1278","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/opisthokonta.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/opisthokonta.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/opisthokonta.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/opisthokonta.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1278"}],"version-history":[{"count":13,"href":"https:\/\/opisthokonta.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1278\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1291,"href":"https:\/\/opisthokonta.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1278\/revisions\/1291"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/opisthokonta.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1278"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/opisthokonta.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1278"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/opisthokonta.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1278"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}